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Consumer AI and the Replatforming of the Consumer Digital Economy

Greg Ireland, Kelly Brown — Fri, 20 Mar 2026 04:00:00 GMT

This IDC study highlights developments in the consumer AI market. As we look at the ways in which consumer use of AI changes other online behaviors, we see a replatforming of the consumer digital economy in which consumers rely less on traditional search and websites and more on AI assistants. AI assistants are already the starting point for many consumer customer journeys. This represents monetization opportunities for AI platform providers and opportunities for these providers to reshape a growing number of online consumer experiences.

Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast, 2026-2030: CY 1Q26

Ramon T. Llamas — Fri, 20 Mar 2026 04:00:00 GMT

This IDC presentation analyzes the worldwide mobile phone market, including shipments and average selling prices (ASPs). In addition, we provide regional breakdowns and a view of air interface technologies. Finally, this presentation includes a comparison against our previous forecast published in December 2025.

"The worldwide mobile phone market is bracing for a 12.6% contraction in 2026 due to memory shortages," pointed out Ramon T. Llamas, research director with IDC's Mobile Devices and AR/VR. "We saw the start of this toward the end of 2025 as memory vendors pivoted toward supplying datacenters and AI and did not expand current capacity to meet the demands of the mobile phone market. At the same time, the scarcity of memory will also lead to an increase in average selling prices, jumping 13.8% to reach $462. As a result, both volumes and ASPs will show slow recovery." —

European Plans for Direct Smartphone-to-Satellite D2C Service Become Clear

Simon Baker, Peter Chahal, Ahmad Latif Ali — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 04:00:00 GMT

Firm commitments are being made in smartphone-to-satellite D2C service with significant announcements at the Mobile World Congress (MWC). Orange and Telefónica are to work with the Vodafone AST SpaceMobile joint venture, which is due to start service later this year. Deutsche Telekom (DT)/T-Mobile in contrast will work with SpaceX Starlink in Europe as it does in the United States.

There was concrete news on smartphone-to-satellite D2C service across Europe at the Mobile World Congress:

Shortly before the show, Vodafone announced a new name for its SatCo joint venture with AST SpaceMobile, now to be called Satellite Connect Europe (SCE). The Luxembourg-based venture will be led by Meredith Sharples, who most recently has worked at Digicel in the Caribbean as regional CEO.
Orange and Telefónica signed up for SCE during the show. Vodafone plans trials in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Romania. Orange will also be carrying out initial testing in Romania.
Deutsche Telekom (T-Mobile's parent company), on the other hand, opted in Europe for SpaceX Starlink. This DT service is expected to launch in Europe in 2028.

All three MNOs intend to offer service across their multiple operations in the European markets.

Also at the show, SpaceX renamed its service Starlink Mobile and was at pains to underline that it does not intend to compete with MNOs with D2C services. SpaceX said that the first-generation Starlink Mobile system reaches 16 million unique users, with 25 million expected by the end of this year. Currently there are 10 million active users on a monthly basis. Partner carriers include T-Mobile in the United States, Rogers in Canada, and KDDI in Japan.

AST Satellite Connect's Europe service is due to start before the end of this year. However, that is dependent on an ambitious launch schedule — AST SpaceMobile said at MWC that it aims to have 45–60 satellites in the orbit by the end of the year but that may not be achieved. Only one of AST's larger BlueBird satellites is currently in orbit, and while a Blue Origin New Glenn launch is due to take place later in March, it will carry only one more Bluebird satellite, even though New Glenn can carry three to eight per launch. A full payload New Glenn launch is planned later in the year. Otherwise, AST will be relying on SpaceX, whose Falcon 9 can carry three or four BlueBirds per launch. AST says it needs 45 satellites in the orbit for initial service across the United States, Europe, and Japan.

The aim of AST has been to go for broadband satellite service from the outset, and its BlueBird satellites have the largest antennas ever used on commercial LEO spacecraft. AST aims for a throughput rate of 120Mbps.

While AST service will utilize cellular operator frequency, in Europe, Deutsche Telekom/T-Mobile has taken the decision with Starlink not to use its own cellular frequency but to use the AWS-3 and AWS-4 frequency blocks being purchased by Echostar. These are adjacent to current frequencies for cellular 5G in the United States and elsewhere. However, most smartphones are currently not equipped to operate on them. Deutsche Telekom therefore needs to work with SpaceX to persuade chipmakers, notably Qualcomm and Mediatek, and smartphone manufacturers to expand the reception range of their modems to the AWS-3 and AWS-4 bands. The most likely smartphone maker targets are Apple and Samsung, the dominant smartphone brands in Germany as they are in the United States.

This will delay the launch of service. At MWC, a DT executive told IDC that the company was confident that it would achieve this in time to have compatible phones available for the 2028 launch in the 10 countries in the DT European mobile footprint.

Potential users will need to obtain one of these compatible phones to use the Starlink service. DT has an extensive retail presence in the phone market in its operating countries through which to achieve such distribution. The Deutsche Telekom executive explained that the decision to use the Echostar frequency was in part driven by a wish not to allocate away DT terrestrial frequency to satellite use.

This schedule seems slow for SpaceX but may have been forced on the company by expected delays in clearance for use of the Echostar frequencies. There will also be a delay related to the space segment. The additional Echostar frequencies will be incorporated onto the planned v3 Starlink satellites, which are due to be launched from the middle of next year. These will also have large antennas and require launch by SpaceX's Starship/Super Heavy Booster (SHB), which is yet to enter operational service. An updated version of this, the Starship v3, is due to be test launched in March.

As might be expected of SpaceX, however, it has big plans for its second-generation Starlink Mobile service. From the second half of 2027, SpaceX is aiming for rapid turnarounds on Starship SHB and the schedule for rollout of Starlink v3 spacecraft returns to the company's usual impatience to get on with things, with 1,200 due to be in operation within six months. The Super Heavy Booster, which is much larger than the current SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, will be capable of carrying 60 or so Starlink v3s satellites per launch.

The Starlink v3 service is designed to compete head-on with AST. Whereas the current SpaceX Starlink Mobile system works from 650 smaller v2 satellites and provides a throughput of around 4Mbps and is limited basically to text service, the v3 system is aimed to achieve a much higher up to 150Mbps for 5G phones, enough to stream video.

From the consumer point of view, 2026 will not be the year of direct smartphone-to-satellite service in Europe. But following testing this year, broadband service should roll out from AST SpaceMobile and its partners, and by 2028, healthy competition will emerge between two providers of broadband D2C service involving many of Europe's cellular providers.

MWC26 Operations and Monetization Updates: AI and Agentic

Chris Silberberg — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 04:00:00 GMT

Mobile World Congress (MWC) 2026 highlighted the telecom industry's shift from technology experimentation to execution, with agentic AI, data quality, and telecom ontologies as central themes. While autonomous networks are advancing, data fragmentation, trust in AI-driven autonomy, and workforce transformation remain significant hurdles.

The State of Enterprise Mobile AI

Bryan Bassett — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 04:00:00 GMT

This IDC Market Perspective examines the current state of B2B mobile AI, highlighting mobile AI definitions, hybrid deployment models, AI management requirements, and the market shift from assistive AI for personal productivity to supervised policy-controlled task execution in enterprise workflows.

"While the first waves of mobile AI leveraged consumer-centric generative features baked into smartphones for personal productivity, mobile AI is evolving into a managed capability within corporate mobile strategies," says Bryan Bassett, research manager, Enterprise Mobility, IDC. "It is no longer the case of if mobile AI will be used in the workplace; instead, enterprises are trying to determine how best to govern, secure, and integrate mobile AI into specific business workflows. Mobile AI is now an essential consideration when it comes to endpoint management in enterprise environments."

U.S. Business Use Smartphone Forecast, 2026–2030

Bryan Bassett, Anthony Scarsella — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 04:00:00 GMT

This IDC presentation provides the five-year forecast for the U.S. business use smartphone market and delivers insight into the drivers and inhibitors of growth.

"In 2026, compounding the issue of extended corporate device refresh cycles is the looming global memory shortage left in the wake of rapid global AI datacenter expansion. Despite this, demand for corporate mobile refresh will hold steady as mobile investment remains a necessary cost of doing business in the enterprise." — Bryan Bassett, research manager, Enterprise Mobility, IDC

Worldwide Rugged Mobile Device Forecast, 2026–2030

Bryan Bassett — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 04:00:00 GMT

This IDC presentation provides the five-year forecast for the worldwide rugged mobile device market and delivers insight into the drivers and inhibitors of growth.

"Like other device markets, rugged mobile device shipment volumes are expected to slow through 2026 as a result of global memory shortage challenges," said Bryan Bassett, research manager with IDC's Enterprise Mobility. "Despite this, next-gen AI rugged devices are well positioned to broaden hybrid AI deployment use cases for frontline workers at the edge."

IDC Survey: How Do U.S. Consumers Perceive Your Brand? — 2025 Consumer Brand Sentiment Survey Findings

Kelly Brown, Greg Ireland — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 04:00:00 GMT

This IDC study examines data collected from IDC’s 2025 Consumer Brand Sentiment Survey. The survey examines how consumers perceive different brands and the factors that influence their decisions when choosing which brands to use in the United States. Respondents were asked to rate 30 brands and brand attributes on a scale of zero through ten. All data is top four box unless specified.

“While generational preferences differ, Gen Z aligns more with digital-native platforms and boomers with traditional electronics brands. Amazon remains the clear leader in consumer sentiment across demographic cohorts and income segments.” — Kelly Brown, research manager, consumer markets, IDC

U.S. Cable Operators Continue to See Wireless Subscriber and Revenue Growth in 4Q25

Pahul Singh — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 04:00:00 GMT

The IDC Market Note provides an analysis of the 4Q25 earnings of three U.S. cable companies offering mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) services. The document highlights the year-over-year (YoY) growth in mobile subscribers and revenue for cable MVNOs.

Enterprise Connect 2026: Collaboration Take; AI and New Work Canvases Arrive

Wayne Kurtzman — Tue, 17 Mar 2026 04:00:00 GMT

Enterprise Connect (EC) 2026 was held from March 10 to 12, 2026, at Caesars Forum in Las Vegas, Nevada. This replaced the years-long home of the event in Orlando, Florida. Attendees found a smaller conference that reflected the major shift from last year's "AI's possibilities" to this year's urgent need to launch AI and agents and determine ROI. While AI and agents were the top theme, significant announcements were made in bringing new work surfaces or canvases to the forefront of the new era of work. This IDC Link analyzes the event, many of the announcements, and the overall trends.