IDC FutureScape: Worldwide National Government 2025 Predictions

IDC FutureScape Figure

• Figure: IDC FutureScape: Worldwide National Government 2025 Predictions

Executive Summary

IDC FutureScape Predictions

• Summary of External Drivers

• Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers

• Prediction 1: By 2025, 55% of national governments will adopt formal strategies or action plans to invest in cross-industry collaboration, planning, and protection of critical infrastructure.

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Business Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 2: By 2026, 75% of civilian governments will emulate defense and intelligence community best practices for threat intelligence and observability to enhance national cyber-resilience.

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Business Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 3: By 2028, 60% of national governments will embed sovereignty requirements in AI procurement to enhance data compliance, improve operational resilience, and reduce risks of technical lock-in.

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Business Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 4: By 2027, 70% of national governments will increase investments in data-sharing capabilities by 20% to make high-quality data available for AI training and inferencing​.

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Business Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 5: By 2026, 65% of national governments will be fiscally accountable and control innovation costs in a multicloud environment via AI-enabled FinOps.

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Business Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 6: By 2025, 35% of national governments will pilot multi-agent AI and GenAI to hyper-personalize digital citizen experiences that will make the bureaucracy invisible.

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Business Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 7: By 2028, 70% of national governments will adopt modular, flexible benefits and services models embedded with GenAI for low-code/no-code integration of rules, policies, programs, and case workflows.

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Business Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 8: Led by the U.S., by 2026, 45% of national governments will hire CAIOs or assign AI responsibilities to CDOs to drive impactful AI innovation in a responsible manner.

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Business Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 9: By 2026, 35% of national governments will use AI and digital twins to make informed decisions about social and environmental sustainability mission outcomes.

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Business Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 10: Due to frequent cyberattacks and staff shortages, by 2027, a third of nations will limit organizational GenAI tool usage and move the most sensitive GenAI workloads from public cloud to infrastructure inside their security perimeter.

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Business Impact

• Guidance

Advice for Technology Buyers

External Drivers: Detail

• The Drive to Automate — Toward a Data-Driven Future

• Future-Proofing Against Environmental Risks — ESG Operationalization and Risk Management

• AI-Driven Workplace Transformation — Building Tomorrow's Workforce Today

• Expanding Digital Security Frontiers — Fortification Against Multiplying Threats

• Geoeconomic Reordering — Rethinking Globalization, Supply Chains, and Macroeconomic Challenges

• Responsible and Human-Centric Technology — Ethics in the Enterprise

• Customer Experience Squared — Consumer and Citizen Expectations for Digital Services

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